Prediction of landfalling hurricanes with the Advanced Hurricane WRF model

Real-time forecasts of five landfalling Atlantic hurricanes during 2005 using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) (ARW) Model at grid spacings of 12 and 4 km revealed performance generally competitive with, and occasionally superior to, other operational forecasts for storm position and intensity. Recurring errors include 1) excessive intensification prior to landfall, 2) insufficient momentum exchange with the surface, and 3) inability to capture rapid intensification when observed. To address these errors several augmentations of the basic community model have been designed and tested as part of what is termed the Advanced Hurricane WRF (AHW) model. Based on sensitivity simulations of Katrina, the inner-core structure, particularly the size of the eye, was found to be sensitive to model resolution and surface momentum exchange. The forecast of rapid intensification and the structure of convective bands in Katrina were not significantly improved until the grid spacing approached 1 km. Coupling the atmospheric model to a columnar, mixed layer ocean model eliminated much of the erroneous intensification of Katrina prior to landfall noted in the real-time forecast.

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Author Davis, Christopher A.
Wang, Wei
Chen, S. S.
Chen, Yongsheng
Corbosiero, Kristen
DeMaria, M.
Dudhia, Jimy
Holland, Gregory J.
Klemp, Joseph
Michalakes, John
Reeves, Heather
Rotunno, Richard
Snyder, Chris
Xiao, Qingnong
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2008-06-01T00:00:00
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2025-07-17T15:57:53.973742
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:6302
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Davis, Christopher A., Wang, Wei, Chen, S. S., Chen, Yongsheng, Corbosiero, Kristen, DeMaria, M., Dudhia, Jimy, Holland, Gregory J., Klemp, Joseph, Michalakes, John, Reeves, Heather, Rotunno, Richard, Snyder, Chris, Xiao, Qingnong. (2008). Prediction of landfalling hurricanes with the Advanced Hurricane WRF model. UCAR/NCAR - Library. https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7445mnm. Accessed 09 August 2025.

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