The identification and verification of hazardous convective cells over oceans using visible and infrared satellite observations

Three algorithms based on geostationary visible and infrared (IR) observations are used to identify convective cells that do (or may) present a hazard to aviation over the oceans. The performance of these algorithms in detecting potentially hazardous cells is determined through verification with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite observations of lightning and radar reflectivity, which provide internal information about the convective cells. The probability of detection of hazardous cells using the satellite algorithms can exceed 90% when lightning is used as a criterion for hazard, but the false-alarm ratio with all three algorithms is consistently large (∼40%), thereby exaggerating the presence of hazardous conditions. This shortcoming results in part from the algorithms' dependence upon visible and IR observations, and can be traced to the widespread prevalence of deep cumulonimbi with weak updrafts but without lightning over tropical oceans, whose origin is attributed to significant entrainment during ascent.

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Copyright 2008 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work.
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Author Donovan, M.
Williams, E.
Kessinger, Cathy J.
Blackburn, Gary
Herzegh, Paul H.
Bankert, R.
Miller, S.
Mosher, F.
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2008-01-01T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2025-07-17T16:00:13.321259
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:6394
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Donovan, M., Williams, E., Kessinger, Cathy J., Blackburn, Gary, Herzegh, Paul H., Bankert, R., Miller, S., Mosher, F.. (2008). The identification and verification of hazardous convective cells over oceans using visible and infrared satellite observations. UCAR/NCAR - Library. https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d77d2vb1. Accessed 10 August 2025.

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