Analysis of precipitation diurnal cycle and variance in multiple observations, CMIP6 models, and a series of GFDL-AM4.0 simulations

The diurnal cycle of precipitation and precipitation variances at different time scales are analyzed in this study based on multiple high-resolution 3-h precipitation datasets. The results are used to evaluate nine CMIP6 models and a series of GFDL-AM4.0 model simulations, with the goal of examining the impact of SST diurnal cycle, varying horizontal resolutions, and different microphysics schemes on these two precipitation features. It is found that although diurnal amplitudes are reasonably simulated, models generally generate too early diurnal peaks over land, with a diurnal phase peaking around noon instead of the observed late afternoon (or early evening) peak. As for precipitation variances, irregular subdaily fluctuations dominate the total variance, followed by variance of daily mean precipitation and variance associated with the mean diurnal cycle. While the spatial and zonal distributions of precipitation variances are generally captured by the models, significant biases are present in tropical regions, where large mean precipitation biases are observed. The comparisons based on AM4.0 model simulations demonstrate that the inclusion of ocean coupling, adoption of a new microphysics scheme, and increasing of horizontal resolution have limited impacts on these two simulated features, emphasizing the need for future investigation into these model deficiencies at the process level. Conducting routine examinations of these metrics would be a crucial first step toward better simulation of precipitation intermittence in future model development. Last, distinct differences in these two features are found among observational datasets, highlighting the urgent need for a detailed evaluation of precipitation observations, especially at subdaily time scales, as model evaluation heavily relies on high-quality observations.