Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction

Weather and climate variations on subseasonal to decadal time scales can have enormous social, economic, and environmental impacts, making skillful predictions on these time scales a valuable tool for decision-makers. As such, there is a growing interest in the scientific, operational, and applications communities in developing forecasts to improve our foreknowledge of extreme events. On subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales, these include high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, floods, droughts, and heat and cold waves. On seasonal to decadal (S2D) time scales, while the focus broadly remains similar (e.g., on precipitation, surface and upper-ocean temperatures, and their effects on the probabilities of high-impact meteorological events), understanding the roles of internal variability and externally forced variability such as anthropogenic warming in forecasts also becomes important. The S2S and S2D communities share common scientific and technical challenges. These include forecast initialization and ensemble generation; initialization shock and drift; understanding the onset of model systematic errors; bias correction, calibration, and forecast quality assessment; model resolution; atmosphere-ocean coupling; sources and expectations for predictability; and linking research, operational forecasting, and end-user needs. In September 2018 a coordinated pair of international conferences, framed by the above challenges, was organized jointly by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). These conferences surveyed the state of S2S and S2D prediction, ongoing research, and future needs, providing an ideal basis for synthesizing current and emerging developments in these areas that promise to enhance future operational services. This article provides such a synthesis.

To Access Resource:

Questions? Email Resource Support Contact:

  • opensky@ucar.edu
    UCAR/NCAR - Library

Resource Type publication
Temporal Range Begin N/A
Temporal Range End N/A
Temporal Resolution N/A
Bounding Box North Lat N/A
Bounding Box South Lat N/A
Bounding Box West Long N/A
Bounding Box East Long N/A
Spatial Representation N/A
Spatial Resolution N/A
Related Links N/A
Additional Information N/A
Resource Format PDF
Standardized Resource Format PDF
Asset Size N/A
Legal Constraints

Copyright 2020 American Meteorological Society (AMS).
Access Constraints None
Software Implementation Language N/A

Resource Support Name N/A
Resource Support Email opensky@ucar.edu
Resource Support Organization UCAR/NCAR - Library
Distributor N/A
Metadata Contact Name N/A
Metadata Contact Email opensky@ucar.edu
Metadata Contact Organization UCAR/NCAR - Library

Author Merryfield, W. J.
Baehr, J.
Batté, L.
Becker, E. J.
Butler, A. H.
Coelho, C. A. S.
Danabasoglu, Gokhan
Dirmeyer, P. A.
Doblas-Reyes, F. J.
Domeisen, D. I. V.
Ferranti, L.
Ilynia, T.
Kumar, A.
Müller, W. A.
Rixen, M.
Robertson, A. W.
Smith, D. M.
Takaya, Y.
Tuma, M.
Vitart, F.
White, C. J.
Alvarez, M. S.
Ardilouze, C.
Attard, H.
Baggett, C.
Balmaseda, M. A.
Beraki, A. F.
Bhattacharjee, P. S.
Bilbao, R.
de Andrade, F. M.
DeFlorio, M. J.
Díaz, L. B.
Ehsan, M. A.
Fragkoulidis, G.
Grainger, S.
Green, B. W.
Hell, M. C.
Infanti, J. M.
Isensee, K.
Kataoka, T.
Kirtman, B. P.
Klingaman, N. P.
Lee, J.
Mayer, K.
McKay, R.
Mecking, J. V.
Miller, D. E.
Neddermann, N.
Justin Ng, C. H.
Ossó, A.
Pankatz, K.
Peatman, S.
Pegion, K.
Perlwitz, J.
Recalde-Coronel, G. C.
Reintges, A.
Renkl, C.
Solaraju-Murali, B.
Spring, A.
Stan, C.
Sun, Y. Q.
Tozer, C. R.
Vigaud, N.
Woolnough, S.
Yeager, Stephen
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2020-06-01T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
Alternate Identifier N/A
Resource Version N/A
Topic Category geoscientificInformation
Progress N/A
Metadata Date 2025-07-11T19:18:45.524117
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:23888
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Merryfield, W. J., Baehr, J., Batté, L., Becker, E. J., Butler, A. H., Coelho, C. A. S., Danabasoglu, Gokhan, Dirmeyer, P. A., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Domeisen, D. I. V., Ferranti, L., Ilynia, T., Kumar, A., Müller, W. A., Rixen, M., Robertson, A. W., Smith, D. M., Takaya, Y., Tuma, M., Vitart, F., White, C. J., Alvarez, M. S., Ardilouze, C., Attard, H., Baggett, C., Balmaseda, M. A., Beraki, A. F., Bhattacharjee, P. S., Bilbao, R., de Andrade, F. M., DeFlorio, M. J., Díaz, L. B., Ehsan, M. A., Fragkoulidis, G., Grainger, S., Green, B. W., Hell, M. C., Infanti, J. M., Isensee, K., Kataoka, T., Kirtman, B. P., Klingaman, N. P., Lee, J., Mayer, K., McKay, R., Mecking, J. V., Miller, D. E., Neddermann, N., Justin Ng, C. H., Ossó, A., Pankatz, K., Peatman, S., Pegion, K., Perlwitz, J., Recalde-Coronel, G. C., Reintges, A., Renkl, C., Solaraju-Murali, B., Spring, A., Stan, C., Sun, Y. Q., Tozer, C. R., Vigaud, N., Woolnough, S., Yeager, Stephen. (2020). Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction. UCAR/NCAR - Library. https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7jh3qht. Accessed 07 August 2025.

Harvest Source