Future atmospheric rivers and impacts on precipitation: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 high-resolution global warming experiment

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow synoptic scale weather features important for Earth's hydrological cycle typically transporting water vapor poleward, delivering precipitation important for local climates. Understanding ARs in a warming climate is problematic because the AR response to climate change is tied to how the feature is defined. The Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) provides insights into this problem by comparing 16 atmospheric river detection tools (ARDTs) to a common data set consisting of high resolution climate change simulations from a global atmospheric general circulation model. ARDTs mostly show increases in frequency and intensity, but the scale of the response is largely dependent on algorithmic criteria. Across ARDTs, bulk characteristics suggest intensity and spatial footprint are inversely correlated, and most focus regions experience increases in precipitation volume coming from extreme ARs. The spread of the AR precipitation response under climate change is large and dependent on ARDT selection.

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Author Shields, Christine A.
Payne, Ashley E.
Shearer, E. J.
Wehner, M. F.
O'Brien, T. A.
Rutz, J. J.
Leung, L. R.
Ralph, F. M.
Marquardt Collow, A. B.
Ullrich, P. A.
Dong, Q.
Gershunov, A.
Griffith, H.
Guan, B.
Lora, J. M.
Lu, M.
McClenny, E.
Nardi, K. M.
Pan, M.
Qian, Y.
Ramos, A. M.
Shulgina, T.
Viale, M.
Sarangi, C.
Tomé, R.
Zarzycki, C.
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2023-03-28T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
Alternate Identifier N/A
Resource Version N/A
Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2025-07-11T15:53:20.982743
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:26313
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Shields, Christine A., Payne, Ashley E., Shearer, E. J., Wehner, M. F., O'Brien, T. A., Rutz, J. J., Leung, L. R., Ralph, F. M., Marquardt Collow, A. B., Ullrich, P. A., Dong, Q., Gershunov, A., Griffith, H., Guan, B., Lora, J. M., Lu, M., McClenny, E., Nardi, K. M., Pan, M., Qian, Y., Ramos, A. M., Shulgina, T., Viale, M., Sarangi, C., Tomé, R., Zarzycki, C.. (2023). Future atmospheric rivers and impacts on precipitation: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 high-resolution global warming experiment. UCAR/NCAR - Library. https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7bk1hb5. Accessed 30 July 2025.

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