N2O as a regression proxy for dynamical variability in stratospheric trace gas trends

Trends in stratospheric trace gases like HCl, N2O, O3, and NOy show a hemispheric asymmetry over the last 2 decades, with trends having opposing signs in the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere. Here we use N2O, a long-lived tracer with a tropospheric source, as a proxy for stratospheric circulation in the multiple linear regression model used to calculate stratospheric trace gas trends. This is done in an effort to isolate trends due to circulation changes from trends due to the chemical effects of ozone-depleting substances. Measurements from the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) and the Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imager System (OSIRIS) are considered, along with model results from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). Trends in HCl, O3, and NOy for 2004–2018 are examined. Using the N2O regression proxy, we show that observed HCl increases in the Northern Hemisphere are due to changes in the stratospheric circulation. We also show that negative O3 trends above 30 hPa in the Northern Hemisphere can be explained by a change in the circulation but that negative ozone trends at lower levels cannot. Trends in stratospheric NOy are found to be largely consistent with trends in N2O.