Projected ENSO teleconnection changes in CMIP6

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has far reaching impacts through atmospheric teleconnections, which make it a prominent driver of global interannual climate variability. As such, whether and how these teleconnections may change due to projected future climate change remains is a topic of high societal relevance. Here, ENSO Surface Temperature (TAS) and Precipitation (PR) teleconnections between the historical and high-emission future simulations are compared in more than 31 models from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We find significant future (2081-2100) TAS and PR teleconnection changes over approximately 50% of teleconnected regions in December-February relative to 1950-2014. The large majority of these significant teleconnection changes suggest that an amplification of the historical teleconnections will occur, however, some regions also display a significant teleconnection dampening. Further to this, in many regions these ENSO teleconnection changes scale with the projected warming level, with higher warming leading to larger teleconnection changes.

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Copyright 2022 American Geophysical Union


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Author McGregor, S.
Cassou, C.
Kosaka, Y.
Phillips, Adam
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2022-06-16T00:00:00
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2025-07-11T16:02:20.625380
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:25474
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation McGregor, S., Cassou, C., Kosaka, Y., Phillips, Adam. (2022). Projected ENSO teleconnection changes in CMIP6. UCAR/NCAR - Library. https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d71z484q. Accessed 02 August 2025.

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