Influence of the North Pacific Victoria mode on the Pacific ITCZ summer precipitation

This study demonstrates the close connection between the second dominant mode of spring sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the North Pacific poleward of 20°N, referred to as the Victoria mode (VM), and the Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) precipitation during the following summer. Our analysis shows that strong positive VM cases are followed by positive precipitation anomalies over the central-eastern Pacific ITCZ region, in association with negative precipitation anomalies over the ITCZ regions of the tropical western Pacific and eastern North Pacific. The hypothesized physical mechanism through which the spring VM induces the Pacific ITCZ summer precipitation is similar to but slightly different from the seasonal footprinting mechanism. During strong positive VM cases, SSTAs in the subtropics associated with the spring VM persist until summer and develop toward the equator, where low-level convergence and divergence caused by SSTA gradients give rise to enhanced precipitation over the central-eastern Pacific ITCZ region and to reduced precipitation over the ITCZ regions of the tropical western Pacific and eastern North Pacific. The thermodynamic ocean-atmosphere coupling between the ITCZ and SSTAs associated with the VM may play a vital role in the initiation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The VM influence on tropical Pacific summer precipitation can be passed on to the next year through its influence on ENSO. A VM-based linear model is established to predict the tropical Pacific summer precipitation, which yields skillful forecasts for summer precipitation across almost the entire tropical Pacific.