Premature mortality in India due to PM₂.₅ and ozone exposure

This bottom-up modeling study, supported by new population census 2011 data, simulates ozone (O₃) and fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) exposure on local to regional scales. It quantifies, present-day premature mortalities associated with the exposure to near-surface PM₂.₅ and O₃ concentrations in India using a regional chemistry model. We estimate that PM₂.₅ exposure leads to about 570,000 (CI95: 320,000-730,000) premature mortalities in 2011. On a national scale, our estimate of mortality by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) due to O₃ exposure is about 12,000 people. The Indo-Gangetic region accounts for a large part (~42%) of the estimated mortalities. The associated lost life expectancy is calculated as 3.4 ± 1.1 years for all of India with highest values found for Delhi (6.3 ± 2.2 years). The economic cost of estimated premature mortalities associated with PM₂.₅ and O₃ exposure is about 640 (350-800) billion USD in 2011, which is a factor of 10 higher than total expenditure on health by public and private expenditure.