Trends in the neutral and ionized upper atmosphere

This article reviews our knowledge of long-term changes and trends in the upper atmosphere and ionosphere. These changes are part of complex and comprehensive pattern of long-term trends in the Earth’s atmosphere. They also have practical impact. For example, decreasing thermospheric density causes the lifetime of orbiting space debris to increase, which is becoming a significant threat to important satellite technologies. Since the first paper on upper atmosphere trends was published in 1989, our knowledge has progressed considerably. Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases affect the whole atmosphere, not only the troposphere. They cause warming in the troposphere but cooling in the upper atmosphere. Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide are not the only driver of long-term changes and trends in the upper atmosphere and ionosphere. Anthropogenic changes of stratospheric ozone, long-term changes of geomagnetic and solar activity, and other drivers play a role as well, although greenhouse gases appear to be the main driver of long-term trends. This makes the pattern of trends more complex and variable. A consistent, although incomplete, scenario of trends in the upper atmosphere and ionosphere is presented. Trends in F2-region ionosphere parameters, in mesosphere-lower thermosphere dynamics, and in noctilucent or polar mesospheric clouds, are discussed in more detail. Advances in observational and theoretical analysis have explained some previous discrepancies in this global trend scenario. An important role in trend investigations is played by model simulations, which facilitate understanding of the mechanisms behind the observed trends.