Soil organic carbon models need independent time-series validation for reliable prediction

Numerical models are crucial to understand and/or predict past and future soil organic carbon dynamics. For those models aiming at prediction, validation is a critical step to gain confidence in projections. With a comprehensive review of similar to 250 models, we assess how models are validated depending on their objectives and features, discuss how validation of predictive models can be improved. We find a critical lack of independent validation using observed time series. Conducting such validations should be a priority to improve the model reliability. Approximately 60% of the models we analysed are not designed for predictions, but rather for conceptual understanding of soil processes. These models provide important insights by identifying key processes and alternative formalisms that can be relevant for predictive models. We argue that combining independent validation based on observed time series and improved information flow between predictive and conceptual models will increase reliability in predictions.

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Related Dataset #1 : A Global Database of Soil Respiration Data, Version 5.0

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Author Le Noë, J.
Manzoni, S.
Abramoff, R.
Bölscher, T.
Bruni, E.
Cardinael, R.
Ciais, P.
Chenu, C.
Clivot, H.
Derrien, D.
Ferchaud, F.
Garnier, P.
Goll, D.
Lashermes, G.
Martin, M.
Rasse, D.
Rees, F.
Sainte-Marie, J.
Salmon, E.
Schiedung, M.
Schimel, J.
Wieder, William
Abiven, S.
Barré, P.
Cécillon, L.
Guenet, B.
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2023-05-08T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
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Resource Version N/A
Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2025-07-11T15:18:07.426373
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:26314
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Le Noë, J., Manzoni, S., Abramoff, R., Bölscher, T., Bruni, E., Cardinael, R., Ciais, P., Chenu, C., Clivot, H., Derrien, D., Ferchaud, F., Garnier, P., Goll, D., Lashermes, G., Martin, M., Rasse, D., Rees, F., Sainte-Marie, J., Salmon, E., Schiedung, M., Schimel, J., Wieder, William, Abiven, S., Barré, P., Cécillon, L., Guenet, B.. (2023). Soil organic carbon models need independent time-series validation for reliable prediction. UCAR/NCAR - Library. https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d76t0rnw. Accessed 30 July 2025.

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