North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply

Current models are too noisy to predict climate usefully on decadal timescales, but two-stage post-processing of model outputs greatly improves predictions of decadal variations in North Atlantic winter climate.

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Author Smith, D. M.
Scaife, A. A.
Eade, R.
Athanasiadis, P.
Bellucci, A.
Bethke, I.
Bilbao, R.
Borchert, L. F.
Caron, L.-P.
Counillon, F.
Danabasoglu, Gokhan
Delworth, T.
Doblas-Reyes, F. J.
Dunstone, N. J.
Estella-Perez, V.
Flavoni, S.
Hermanson, L.
Keenlyside, N.
Kharin, V.
Kimoto, M.
Merryfield, W. J.
Mignot, J.
Mochizuki, T.
Modali, K.
Monerie, P.-A.
Müller, W. A.
Nicolí, D.
Ortega, P.
Pankatz, K.
Pohlmann, H.
Robson, J.
Ruggieri, P.
Sospedra-Alfonso, R.
Swingedouw, D.
Wang, Y.
Wild, S.
Yeager, Stephen
Yang, X.
Zhang, L.
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2020-07-30T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
Alternate Identifier N/A
Resource Version N/A
Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2023-08-18T18:32:27.850820
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:23616
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Smith, D. M., Scaife, A. A., Eade, R., Athanasiadis, P., Bellucci, A., Bethke, I., Bilbao, R., Borchert, L. F., Caron, L.-P., Counillon, F., Danabasoglu, Gokhan, Delworth, T., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Dunstone, N. J., Estella-Perez, V., Flavoni, S., Hermanson, L., Keenlyside, N., Kharin, V., Kimoto, M., Merryfield, W. J., Mignot, J., Mochizuki, T., Modali, K., Monerie, P.-A., Müller, W. A., Nicolí, D., Ortega, P., Pankatz, K., Pohlmann, H., Robson, J., Ruggieri, P., Sospedra-Alfonso, R., Swingedouw, D., Wang, Y., Wild, S., Yeager, Stephen, Yang, X., Zhang, L.. (2020). North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply. UCAR/NCAR - Library. http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d71n84d2. Accessed 17 June 2025.

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