Predicting interplanetary shock occurrence for solar cycle 25: Opportunities and challenges in space weather research

Interplanetary (IP) shocks are perturbations observed in the solar wind. IP shocks correlate well with solar activity, being more numerous during times of high sunspot numbers. Earth-bound IP shocks cause many space weather effects that are promptly observed in geospace and on the ground. Such effects can pose considerable threats to human assets in space and on the ground, including satellites in the upper atmosphere and power infrastructure. Thus, it is of great interest to the space weather community to (a) keep an accurate catalog of shocks observed near Earth, and (b) be able to forecast shock occurrence as a function of the solar cycle (SC). In this work, we use a supervised machine learning regression model to predict the number of shocks expected in SC25 using three previously published sunspot predictions for the same cycle. We predict shock counts to be around 275 +/- 10, which is similar to 47% higher than the shock occurrence in SC24 (187 +/- 8), but still smaller than the shock occurrence in SC23 (343 +/- 12). With the perspective of having more IP shocks on the horizon for SC25, we briefly discuss many opportunities in space weather research for the remainder years of SC25. The next decade or so will bring unprecedented opportunities for research and forecasting effects in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and on the ground. As a result, we predict SC25 will offer excellent opportunities for shock occurrences and data availability for conducting space weather research and forecasting.

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Author Oliveira, D. M.
Allen, R. C.
Alves, L. R.
S. P. Blake
Carter, B. A.
Chakrabarty, D.
G. D'Angelo
K. Delano
E. Echer
C. P. Ferradas
M. G. Finley
Gallardo-Lacourt, B.
Gershman, D.
J. W. Gjerloev
Habarulema, J. B.
Hartinger, M. D.
Hajra, R.
Hayakawa, H.
L. Juusola
Laundal, K. M.
Leamon, R. J.
Madelaire, M.
M. Martínez-Ledesma
McIntosh, Scott
Miyoshi, Y.
Moldwin, M. B.
E. Nahayo
Nandy, D.
B. Nilam
Nykyri, K.
W. R. Paterson
M. Piersanti
E. Pietropaolo
Rodger, C. J.
T. Shah
A. W. Smith
Srivastava, N.
Tsurutani, B. T.
S. T. Ram
L. A. Upton
Veenadhari, B.
S. Vidal-Luengo
Viljanen, A.
Vines, S. K.
V. K. Yadav
Yee, J.
J. W. Weygand
E. Zesta
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2024-08-01T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
Alternate Identifier N/A
Resource Version N/A
Topic Category geoscientificInformation
Progress N/A
Metadata Date 2025-07-10T19:59:58.105791
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:27428
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Oliveira, D. M., Allen, R. C., Alves, L. R., S. P. Blake, Carter, B. A., Chakrabarty, D., G. D'Angelo, K. Delano, E. Echer, C. P. Ferradas, M. G. Finley, Gallardo-Lacourt, B., Gershman, D., J. W. Gjerloev, Habarulema, J. B., Hartinger, M. D., Hajra, R., Hayakawa, H., L. Juusola, Laundal, K. M., Leamon, R. J., Madelaire, M., M. Martínez-Ledesma, McIntosh, Scott, Miyoshi, Y., Moldwin, M. B., E. Nahayo, Nandy, D., B. Nilam, Nykyri, K., W. R. Paterson, M. Piersanti, E. Pietropaolo, Rodger, C. J., T. Shah, A. W. Smith, Srivastava, N., Tsurutani, B. T., S. T. Ram, L. A. Upton, Veenadhari, B., S. Vidal-Luengo, Viljanen, A., Vines, S. K., V. K. Yadav, Yee, J., J. W. Weygand, E. Zesta. (2024). Predicting interplanetary shock occurrence for solar cycle 25: Opportunities and challenges in space weather research. UCAR/NCAR - Library. https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7js9vq6. Accessed 09 August 2025.

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