Translation of ensemble weather forecasts into probabilistic air traffic capacity impact

A novel approach for using high-resolution, ensemble-based numerical weather prediction model data for the purpose of weather-related, probabilistic aviation impact forecasting is presented. Ensemble-based weather forecasting will be a common feature in the Next Generation Air Transportation System. The approach uses ensemble model data to create probabilistic information and extraction of aviation-relevant characteristics from ensemble weather forecast data. By providing a representative sample of potential aviation impact, air traffic can be ready to respond to anticipated best- and worst-case outcomes. Using convective storms as an example, this paper demonstrates a proof-of-concept. In principal, it is applicable to other aviation weather hazards.