Contribution of land surface initialization to subseasonal forecast skill: First results from a multi-model experiment

The second phase of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2) is aimed at quantifying, with a suite of long-range forecast systems, the degree to which realistic land surface initialization contributes to the skill of subseasonal precipitation and air temperature forecasts. Results, which focus here on North America, show significant contributions to temperature prediction skill out to two months across large portions of the continent. For precipitation forecasts, contributions to skill are much weaker but are still significant out to 45 days in some locations. Skill levels increase markedly when calculations are conditioned on the magnitude of the initial soil moisture anomaly.

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An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright 2010 by the American Geophysical Union
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Author Koster, R.
Mahanama, S.
Yamada, T.
Balsamo, G.
Berg, A.
Boisserie, M.
Dirmeyer, P.
Doblas-Reyes, F.
Drewitt, G.
Gordon, C.
Guo, Z.
Jeong, J.
Lawrence, David M.
Lee, W.
Li, Z.
Luo, L.
Malyshev, S.
Merryfield, W.
Seneviratne, S.
Stanelle, T.
van den Hurk, B.
Vitart, F.
Wood, E.
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2010-01-26T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
Alternate Identifier N/A
Resource Version N/A
Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2025-07-17T15:27:42.477684
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:10291
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Koster, R., Mahanama, S., Yamada, T., Balsamo, G., Berg, A., Boisserie, M., Dirmeyer, P., Doblas-Reyes, F., Drewitt, G., Gordon, C., Guo, Z., Jeong, J., Lawrence, David M., Lee, W., Li, Z., Luo, L., Malyshev, S., Merryfield, W., Seneviratne, S., Stanelle, T., van den Hurk, B., Vitart, F., Wood, E.. (2010). Contribution of land surface initialization to subseasonal forecast skill: First results from a multi-model experiment. UCAR/NCAR - Library. https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7sn09cg. Accessed 02 August 2025.

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