Effects of high-latitude forcing uncertainty on the low-latitude and midlatitude ionosphere

Ensemble simulations are performed using the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM) in order to understand the role of high-latitude forcing uncertainty on the low-latitude and midlatitude ionosphere response to the April 2010 geomagnetic storm. The ensemble is generated by perturbing either the high-latitude electric potential or auroral energy flux in the assimilative mapping for ionosphere electrodynamics (AMIE). Simulations with perturbed high-latitude electric potential result in substantial intraensemble variability in the low-latitude and midlatitude ionosphere response to the geomagnetic storm, and the ensemble standard deviation for the change in NmF2 reaches 50-100% of the mean change. Such large intraensemble variability is not seen when perturbing the auroral energy flux. In this case, the effects of the forcing uncertainty are primarily confined to high latitudes. We therefore conclude that the specification of high-latitude electric fields is an important source of uncertainty when modeling the low-latitude and midlatitude ionosphere response to a geomagnetic storm. A multiple linear regression analysis of the results indicates that uncertainty in the storm time changes in the equatorial electric fields, neutral winds, and neutral composition can all contribute to the uncertainty in the ionosphere electron density. The results of the present study provide insight into the possible uncertainty in simulations of the low-latitude and midlatitude ionosphere response to geomagnetic storms due to imperfect knowledge of the high-latitude forcing.