Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change

Increased concentrations of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) since preindustrial times reflect increased emissions, but also contributions of past climate change. Here we use modeled concentrations from an ensemble of chemistry-climate models to estimate the global burden of anthropogenic outdoor air pollution on present-day premature human mortality, and the component of that burden attributable to past climate change. Using simulated concentrations for 2000 and 1850 and concentration-response functions (CRFs), we estimate that, at present, 470,000 (95% confidence interval, 140,000 to 900,000) premature respiratory deaths are associated globally and annually with anthropogenic ozone, and 2.1 (1.3 to 3.0) million deaths with anthropogenic PM2.5-related cardiopulmonary diseases (93%) and lung cancer (7%). These estimates are smaller than ones from previous studies because we use modeled 1850 air pollution rather than a counterfactual low concentration, and because of different emissions. Uncertainty in CRFs contributes more to overall uncertainty than the spread of model results. Mortality attributed to the effects of past climate change on air quality is considerably smaller than the global burden: 1500 (-20,000 to 27,000) deaths yr⁻¹ due to ozone and 2200 (-350,000 to 140,000) due to PM2.5. The small multi-model means are coincidental, as there are larger ranges of results for individual models, reflected in the large uncertainties, with some models suggesting that past climate change has reduced air pollution mortality.

To Access Resource:

Questions? Email Resource Support Contact:

  • opensky@ucar.edu
    UCAR/NCAR - Library

Resource Type publication
Temporal Range Begin N/A
Temporal Range End N/A
Temporal Resolution N/A
Bounding Box North Lat N/A
Bounding Box South Lat N/A
Bounding Box West Long N/A
Bounding Box East Long N/A
Spatial Representation N/A
Spatial Resolution N/A
Related Links N/A
Additional Information N/A
Resource Format PDF
Standardized Resource Format PDF
Asset Size N/A
Legal Constraints

Copyright 2013 Authors.
Access Constraints None
Software Implementation Language N/A

Resource Support Name N/A
Resource Support Email opensky@ucar.edu
Resource Support Organization UCAR/NCAR - Library
Distributor N/A
Metadata Contact Name N/A
Metadata Contact Email opensky@ucar.edu
Metadata Contact Organization UCAR/NCAR - Library

Author Silva, Raquel
West, J.
Zhang, Yuqiang
Anenberg, Susan
Lamarque, Jean-Francois
Shindell, Drew
Collins, William
Dalsoren, Stig
Faluvegi, Greg
Folberth, Gerd
Horowitz, Larry
Nagashima, Tatsuya
Naik, Vaishali
Rumbold, Steven
Skeie, Ragnhild
Sudo, Kengo
Takemura, Toshihiko
Bergmann, Daniel
Cameron-Smith, Philip
Cionni, Irene
Doherty, Ruth
Eyring, Veronika
Josse, Beatrice
MacKenzie, I.
Plummer, David
Righi, Mattia
Stevenson, David
Strode, Sarah
Szopa, Sophie
Zeng, Guang
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2013-07-11T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
Alternate Identifier N/A
Resource Version N/A
Topic Category geoscientificInformation
Progress N/A
Metadata Date 2023-08-18T18:47:45.670071
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:12905
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Silva, Raquel, West, J., Zhang, Yuqiang, Anenberg, Susan, Lamarque, Jean-Francois, Shindell, Drew, Collins, William, Dalsoren, Stig, Faluvegi, Greg, Folberth, Gerd, Horowitz, Larry, Nagashima, Tatsuya, Naik, Vaishali, Rumbold, Steven, Skeie, Ragnhild, Sudo, Kengo, Takemura, Toshihiko, Bergmann, Daniel, Cameron-Smith, Philip, Cionni, Irene, Doherty, Ruth, Eyring, Veronika, Josse, Beatrice, MacKenzie, I., Plummer, David, Righi, Mattia, Stevenson, David, Strode, Sarah, Szopa, Sophie, Zeng, Guang. (2013). Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change. UCAR/NCAR - Library. http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7930v1r. Accessed 24 June 2025.

Harvest Source