Seasonal to multi-year soil moisture drought forecasting

Soil moisture predictability on seasonal to decadal (S2D) continuum timescales over North America is examined from the Community Earth System Modeling (CESM) experiments. The effects of ocean and land initializations are disentangled using two large ensemble datasets-initialized and uninitialized experiments from the CESM. We find that soil moisture has significant predictability on S2D timescales despite limited predictability in precipitation. On sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales, precipitation variability is an order of magnitude greater than soil moisture, suggesting land surface processes, including soil moisture memory, reemergence, land-atmosphere interactions, transform a less predictable precipitation signal into a more predictable soil moisture signal.

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Author Esit, Musa
Kumar, Sanjiv
Pandey, Ashutosh
Lawrence, David M.
Rangwala, Imtiaz
Yeager, Stephen
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2021-12-12T00:00:00
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2023-08-18T18:28:51.273014
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:24215
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Esit, Musa, Kumar, Sanjiv, Pandey, Ashutosh, Lawrence, David M., Rangwala, Imtiaz, Yeager, Stephen. (2021). Seasonal to multi-year soil moisture drought forecasting. UCAR/NCAR - Library. http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d79c71s3. Accessed 22 June 2025.

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