Teleconnections of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving models

The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to increased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the relevant mechanisms are accurately represented in models. Here modelling and sampling uncertainties of QBO teleconnections are examined using a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving atmospheric general circulation models that have carried out a set of coordinated experiments as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi). During Northern Hemisphere winter, the stratospheric polar vortex in most of these models strengthens when the QBO near 50 hPa is westerly and weakens when it is easterly, consistent with, but weaker than, the observed response. These weak responses are likely due to model errors, such as systematically weak QBO amplitudes near 50 hPa, affecting the teleconnection. The teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation is less well captured overall, but of similar strength to the observed signal in the few models that do show it. The models do not show clear evidence of a QBO teleconnection to the Northern Hemisphere Pacific-sector subtropical jet.

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Author Anstey, James A.
Simpson, Isla R.
Richter, Jadwiga H.
Naoe, Hiroaki
Taguchi, Masakazu
Serva, Federico
Gray, Lesley J.
Butchart, Neal
Hamilton, Kevin
Osprey, Scott
Bellprat, Omar
Braesicke, Peter
Bushell, Andrew C.
Cagnazzo, Chiara
Chen, Chih‐Chieh
Chun, Hye‐Yeong
Garcia, Rolando R.
Holt, Laura
Kawatani, Yoshio
Kerzenmacher, Tobias
Kim, Young‐Ha
Lott, Francois
McLandress, Charles
Scinocca, John
Stockdale, Timothy N.
Versick, Stefan
Watanabe, Shingo
Yoshida, Kohei
Yukimoto, Seiji
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2022-04-01T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
Alternate Identifier N/A
Resource Version N/A
Topic Category geoscientificInformation
Progress N/A
Metadata Date 2023-08-18T18:36:26.304016
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:25329
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Anstey, James A., Simpson, Isla R., Richter, Jadwiga H., Naoe, Hiroaki, Taguchi, Masakazu, Serva, Federico, Gray, Lesley J., Butchart, Neal, Hamilton, Kevin, Osprey, Scott, Bellprat, Omar, Braesicke, Peter, Bushell, Andrew C., Cagnazzo, Chiara, Chen, Chih‐Chieh, Chun, Hye‐Yeong, Garcia, Rolando R., Holt, Laura, Kawatani, Yoshio, Kerzenmacher, Tobias, Kim, Young‐Ha, Lott, Francois, McLandress, Charles, Scinocca, John, Stockdale, Timothy N., Versick, Stefan, Watanabe, Shingo, Yoshida, Kohei, Yukimoto, Seiji. (2022). Teleconnections of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving models. UCAR/NCAR - Library. http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d73x8bb1. Accessed 30 June 2025.

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