Abrupt increase in Arctic-Subarctic wildfires caused by future permafrost thaw

Unabated 21st-century climate change will accelerate Arctic-Subarctic permafrost thaw which can intensify microbial degradation of carbon-rich soils, methane emissions, and global warming. The impact of permafrost thaw on future Arctic-Subarctic wildfires and the associated release of greenhouse gases and aerosols is less well understood. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of the effect of future permafrost thaw on land surface processes in the Arctic-Subarctic region using the CESM2 large ensemble forced by the SSP3-7.0 greenhouse gas emission scenario. Analyzing 50 greenhouse warming simulations, which capture the coupling between permafrost, hydrology, and atmosphere, we find that projected rapid permafrost thaw leads to massive soil drying, surface warming, and reduction of relative humidity over the Arctic-Subarctic region. These combined processes lead to nonlinear late-21st-century regime shifts in the coupled soil-hydrology system and rapid intensification of wildfires in western Siberia and Canada.

To Access Resource:

Questions? Email Resource Support Contact:

  • opensky@ucar.edu
    UCAR/NCAR - Library

Resource Type publication
Temporal Range Begin N/A
Temporal Range End N/A
Temporal Resolution N/A
Bounding Box North Lat N/A
Bounding Box South Lat N/A
Bounding Box West Long N/A
Bounding Box East Long N/A
Spatial Representation N/A
Spatial Resolution N/A
Related Links

Related Dataset #1 : Data for Kim et al. 2024, Nature Communications

Additional Information N/A
Resource Format PDF
Standardized Resource Format PDF
Asset Size N/A
Legal Constraints

Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.


Access Constraints None
Software Implementation Language N/A

Resource Support Name N/A
Resource Support Email opensky@ucar.edu
Resource Support Organization UCAR/NCAR - Library
Distributor N/A
Metadata Contact Name N/A
Metadata Contact Email opensky@ucar.edu
Metadata Contact Organization UCAR/NCAR - Library

Author Kim, I.
Timmermann, A.
Kim, J.
Rodgers, K. B.
Lee, S.
Lee, H.
Wieder, William
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2024-12-01T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
Alternate Identifier N/A
Resource Version N/A
Topic Category geoscientificInformation
Progress N/A
Metadata Date 2025-07-10T19:55:58.320388
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:42396
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Kim, I., Timmermann, A., Kim, J., Rodgers, K. B., Lee, S., Lee, H., Wieder, William. (2024). Abrupt increase in Arctic-Subarctic wildfires caused by future permafrost thaw. UCAR/NCAR - Library. https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d78g8r11. Accessed 04 August 2025.

Harvest Source