Numerical prediction of fog: A novel parameterization for droplet formation

A novel aerosol activation scheme was developed and implemented into the WRF Thompson-Eidhammer Aerosol-Aware microphysical module. While in most of the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models the activation is based on updraft velocity, even in the fog, the new parameterization considers the local rate of cooling and water vapor flux in the evaluation of the aerosol activation rate. In addition, diagnostic variables are added to evaluate the visibility reduction due to formation of haze droplets. The impact of changing the activation scheme is demonstrated by a case study of a well-observed fog event. Data observed during the fog event campaign at Budapest and observed at standard meteorological stations are compared with the output of the numerical model. The results are summarized as follows: (i) the inhomogeneous spatial and temporal distribution of the number concentration of droplets is an inherent characteristic of the new parameterization scheme. (ii) Compared to the prior parameterization based on updraft velocity, the new parameterization scheme increases the number concentration of the droplets significantly, especially at the top of the fog. As a consequence, it reduces the downward short-wave radiation flux prolonging the lifetime of the fog by about 30-60 min. (iii) Analyses reveal that earlier dissipation of the fog comparing to the observed data cannot be explained only by overestimation of the downward short-wave radiation flux. (iv) The new method is able to evaluate the reduction of visibility due to haze.