Reappraisal of the Climate Impacts of Ozone‐Depleting Substances

We assess the effective radiative forcing due to ozone-depleting substances using models participating in the Aerosols and Chemistry and Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Projects (AerChemMIP, RFMIP). A large intermodel spread in this globally averaged quantity necessitates an "emergent constraint" approach whereby we link the radiative forcing to ozone declines measured and simulated during 1979-2000, excluding two volcanically perturbed periods. During this period, ozone-depleting substances were increasing, and several merged satellite-based climatologies document the ensuing decline of total-column ozone. Using these analyses, we find an effective radiative forcing of -0.05 to 0.13 W m(-2). Our best estimate (0.04 W m(-2)) is on the edge of the "likely" range given by the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC of 0.03 to 0.33 W m(-2) but is in better agreement with two other literature results.

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Author Morgenstern, Olaf
O'Connor, Fiona M.
Johnson, Ben T.
Zeng, Guang
Mulcahy, Jane P.
Williams, Jonny
Teixeira, João
Michou, Martine
Nabat, Pierre
Horowitz, Larry W.
Naik, Vaishali
Sentman, Lori T.
Deushi, Makoto
Bauer, Susanne E.
Tsigaridis, Kostas
Shindell, Drew T.
Kinnison, Douglas E.
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2020-10-28T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2023-08-18T18:13:55.865723
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:23819
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Morgenstern, Olaf, O'Connor, Fiona M., Johnson, Ben T., Zeng, Guang, Mulcahy, Jane P., Williams, Jonny, Teixeira, João, Michou, Martine, Nabat, Pierre, Horowitz, Larry W., Naik, Vaishali, Sentman, Lori T., Deushi, Makoto, Bauer, Susanne E., Tsigaridis, Kostas, Shindell, Drew T., Kinnison, Douglas E.. (2020). Reappraisal of the Climate Impacts of Ozone‐Depleting Substances. UCAR/NCAR - Library. http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7qf8x5k. Accessed 18 July 2025.

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