An assessment of dropsonde sampling strategies for Atmospheric River Reconnaissance

During a 6-day intensive observing period in January 2021, Atmospheric River Reconnaissance (AR Recon) aircraft sampled a series of atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the northeastern Pacific that caused heavy precipitation over coastal California and the Sierra Nevada. Using these observations, data denial experiments were conducted with a regional modeling and data assimilation system to explore the impacts of research flight frequency and spatial resolution of dropsondes on model analyses and forecasts. Results indicate that dropsondes significantly improve the representation of ARs in the model analyses and positively impact the forecast skill of ARs and quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF), particularly for lead times . 1 day. Both reduced mission frequency and reduced dropsonde horizontal resolution degrade forecast skill. On the other hand, experiments that assimilated only G -IV data and experiments that assimilated both G -IV and C-130 data show better forecast skill than experiments that only assimilated C-130 data, suggesting that the additional information provided by G -IV data is necessary for improving forecast skill. Although this is a case study, the 6-day period studied encompassed multiple AR events that are representative of typical AR behavior. Therefore, the results indicate that future operational AR Recon missions incorporate daily mission or back-to-back flights, maintain current dropsonde spacing, support high-resolution data transfer capacity on the C -130s, and utilize G -IV aircraft in addition to C -130s.