Attribution of stratospheric and tropospheric ozone changes between 1850 and 2014 in CMIP6 models

We quantify the impacts of halogenated ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), greenhouse gases (GHGs), and short-lived ozone precursors on ozone changes between 1850 and 2014 using single-forcing perturbation simulations from several Earth system models with interactive chemistry participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project. We present the responses of ozone to individual forcings and an attribution of changes in ozone columns and vertically resolved stratospheric and tropospheric ozone to these forcings. We find that whilst substantial ODS-induced ozone loss dominates the stratospheric ozone changes since the 1970s, in agreement with previous studies, increases in tropospheric ozone due to increases in short-lived ozone precursors and methane since the 1950s make increasingly important contributions to total column ozone (TCO) changes. Increases in methane also lead to substantial extra-tropical stratospheric ozone increases. Impacts of nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide on stratospheric ozone are significant but their impacts on TCO are small overall due to several opposing factors and are also associated with large dynamical variability. The multi-model mean (MMM) results show a clear change in the stratospheric ozone trends after 2000 due to now declining ODSs, but the trends are generally not significantly positive, except in the extra-tropical upper stratosphere, due to relatively small changes in forcing over this period combined with large model uncertainty. Although the MMM ozone compares well with the observations, the inter-model differences are large primarily due to the large differences in the models' representation of ODS-induced ozone depletion.

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Related Links	Related Dataset #1 : NCAR CESM2-WACCM model output prepared for CMIP6 AerChemMIP hist-1950HC Related Dataset #2 : NCAR CESM2-WACCM model output prepared for CMIP6 AerChemMIP hist-piNTCF Related Dataset #3 : NCAR CESM2-WACCM model output prepared for CMIP6 AerChemMIP histSST Related Dataset #4 : NCAR CESM2-WACCM model output prepared for CMIP6 AerChemMIP histSST-1950HC Related Dataset #5 : NCAR CESM2-WACCM model output prepared for CMIP6 AerChemMIP histSST-piNTCF Related Dataset #6 : NCAR CESM2-WACCM model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical Related Dataset #7 : CNRM-CERFACS CNRM-ESM2-1 model output prepared for CMIP6 AerChemMIP histSST Related Dataset #8 : CNRM-CERFACS CNRM-ESM2-1 model output prepared for CMIP6 AerChemMIP histSST-1950HC Related Dataset #9 : CNRM-CERFACS CNRM-ESM2-1 model output prepared for CMIP6 AerChemMIP histSST-piCH4 Related Dataset #10 : CNRM-CERFACS CNRM-ESM2-1 model output prepared for CMIP6 AerChemMIP histSST-piN2O Related Dataset #11 : CNRM-CERFACS CNRM-ESM2-1 model output prepared for CMIP6 AerChemMIP histSST-piNTCF Related Dataset #12 : NERC UKESM1.0-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 AerChemMIP hist-1950HC Related Dataset #13 : MOHC UKESM1.0-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 AerChemMIP histSST Related Dataset #14 : NERC UKESM1.0-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 AerChemMIP histSST-piCH4 Related Dataset #15 : MOHC UKESM1.0-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical Related Dataset #16 : MRI MRI-ESM2.0 model output prepared for CMIP6 AerChemMIP hist-1950HC Related Dataset #17 : MRI MRI-ESM2.0 model output prepared for CMIP6 AerChemMIP hist-piNTCF Related Dataset #18 : MRI MRI-ESM2.0 model output prepared for CMIP6 AerChemMIP histSST Related Dataset #19 : MRI MRI-ESM2.0 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical Related Dataset #20 : NASA-GISS GISS-E2.1G model output prepared for CMIP6 AerChemMIP histSST Related Dataset #21 : NASA-GISS GISS-E2.1G model output prepared for CMIP6 AerChemMIP histSST-1950HC Related Dataset #22 : NASA-GISS GISS-E2.1G model output prepared for CMIP6 AerChemMIP histSST-piCH4 Related Dataset #23 : NASA-GISS GISS-E2.1G model output prepared for CMIP6 AerChemMIP histSST-piN2O Related Dataset #24 : NASA-GISS GISS-E2.1G model output prepared for CMIP6 AerChemMIP histSST-piNTCF Related Dataset #25 : NIMS-KMA UKESM1.0-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 AerChemMIP hist-piNTCF Related Dataset #26 : NIMS-KMA UKESM1.0-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 AerChemMIP histSST-piNTCF Related Dataset #27 : NOAA-GFDL GFDL-ESM4 model output prepared for CMIP6 AerChemMIP histSST-1950HC Related Dataset #28 : NOAA-GFDL GFDL-ESM4 model output prepared for CMIP6 AerChemMIP histSST-piCH4 Related Dataset #29 : NOAA-GFDL GFDL-ESM4 model output prepared for CMIP6 AerChemMIP histSST-piNTCF Related Dataset #30 : NIWA UKESM1.0-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 AerChemMIP histSST-1950HC Related Dataset #31 : NIWA UKESM1.0-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 AerChemMIP histSST-piN2O
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Author	Zeng, G. Morgenstern, O. Williams, J. H. T. O'Connor, F. M. Griffiths, P. T. Keeble, J. Deushi, M. Horowitz, L. W. Naik, V. Emmons, Louisa K. Abraham, N. L. Archibald, A. T. Bauer, S. E. Hassler, B. Michou, M. Mills, Michael J. Murray, L. T. Oshima, N. Sentman, L. T. Tilmes, Simone Tsigaridis, K. Young, P. J.
Publisher	UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date	2022-08-27T00:00:00
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Topic Category	geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date	2025-07-11T16:00:26.876470
Metadata Record Identifier	edu.ucar.opensky::articles:25632
Metadata Language	eng; USA
Suggested Citation	Zeng, G., Morgenstern, O., Williams, J. H. T., O'Connor, F. M., Griffiths, P. T., Keeble, J., Deushi, M., Horowitz, L. W., Naik, V., Emmons, Louisa K., Abraham, N. L., Archibald, A. T., Bauer, S. E., Hassler, B., Michou, M., Mills, Michael J., Murray, L. T., Oshima, N., Sentman, L. T., Tilmes, Simone, Tsigaridis, K., Young, P. J.. (2022). Attribution of stratospheric and tropospheric ozone changes between 1850 and 2014 in CMIP6 models. UCAR/NCAR - Library. https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7vq36g1. Accessed 02 August 2025.

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Attribution of stratospheric and tropospheric ozone changes between 1850 and 2014 in CMIP6 models

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