Estimating the risk of extreme wind gusts in tropical cyclones using idealized large-eddy simulations and a statistical–dynamical model

Recent studies have shown that extreme wind gusts are ubiquitous within the eyewall of intense tropical cyclones (TCs). These gusts pose a substantial hazard to human life and property, but both the short-term (i.e., during the passage of a single TC) and long-term (over many years) risk of encountering such a gust at a given location is poorly understood. Here, simulated tower data from large-eddy simulations of idealized TCs in a quiescent (i.e., no mean flow or vertical wind shear) environment are used to estimate these risks for the offshore region of the United States. For both a category 5 TC and a category 3 TC, there is a radial region where nearly all simulated towers experience near-surface (the lowest 200 m) 3-s gusts exceeding 70 m s(-1) within a 10-min period; on average, these towers respectively sample peak 3-s gusts of 110 and 80 m s(-1). Analysis of an observational drop-sonde database supports the idealized simulations, and indicates that offshore structures (such as wind turbines) in the eyewall of a major hurricane are likely to encounter damaging wind speeds. This result is then incorporated into an estimate of the long-term risk, using analyses of the return period for major hurricanes from both a best-track database and a statistical-dynamical model forced by reanalysis. For much of the nearshore region of the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern U.S. coasts, this analysis yields an estimate of a 30%-60% probability of any given point experiencing at least one 70 m s(-1) gust within a 30-yr period.